BANK DUNIA: GELEMBUNG HUTANG NEGARA BAKAL "MELETUP"?

HARI ini ada satu berita kurang baik mengenai ekonomi Malaysia.

Antaranya laporan tersebut menyebut HUTANG negara sekarang mencecah 70 peratus dari KDNK negara, kata Bank Dunia.

Tidak mengapa jika kita tidak faham. Pakar ekonomi negara ramai, tak mungkin mereka tidak faham.

Satu perkara yang agak membimbangkan apabila laporan tersebut menggunakan AYAT "Malaysia's debt bubble is about to explode".

Atau dalam bahasa Melayu "gelembung hutang negara sudah hampir meletup."

Jika sebelum ini apabila Bank Dunia membuat kenyataan bahawa ekonomi Malaysia berkembang, seluruh negara kita jaja kenyataan Bank Dunia itu.

Jika dulu kita percaya cakap Bank Dunia ekonomi berkembang, kali ini kita kena percaya juga lah GELEMBUNG HUTANG NEGARA BAKAL MELETUP TAK LAMA LAGI.

Jangan asyik bercakap ikut cuaca. Setiap masa bercakap ekonomi berkembang tetapi apabila ditanya kenapa negara berhenti menjadi hos Formula 1, Najib Razak beri sebab ekonomi teruk.

Latest World Bank report bad news for BN



THE latest World Bank report shows that Malaysia’s economy is growing weaker.

Out of the 15 Asian economies analysed in the report, Malaysia and a few others are the only ones expected to worsen.

The World Bank forecasts that under current conditions, in 2018, Malaysia’s growth rate will lower to 5% and in 2019, decrease further to 4.8%.

There is less than three months to go until 2018.


As the new World Bank report describes Malaysia’s economy: “The main risks to growth arise from the policy uncertainty in the major economies, geopolitical developments and commodity price volatility.”

While most Asian economies are rising, Malaysia’s is in decline, because it has not adapted to both global and domestic economic conditions.

The report also singles out Malaysia as one of only two Asian economies where household debt “exceeds 70% of GDP”. Many economists have concluded that Malaysia’s debt bubble is about to explode.

As others have correctly noted, the gross domestic product numbers and global economic rankings with which Najib is obsessed haven’t benefited Malaysians.

As the World Bank country manager for Malaysia Farid Hadad-Zervos recently warned: “This is the fundamental question: what does GDP really mean in the daily life of Malaysians?”

During his failed US visit, Najib said Malaysia’s 5.2% growth is “the envy of advanced economies”. To which everyone should immediately respond: “Iraq had 11% growth, Bangladesh had 7.1% growth and Ethiopia had 7.6% growth last year – should they be the envy of the advanced economies, too?”

Instead, Malaysia is falling behind its Asian neighbours.

As Bloomberg reported last month, Indonesians and Thais are the world’s top 10 populations where the highest numbers of millionaires are being created, increasing by 13.7% and 12.7% respectively.

Unlike its Asian neighbours, Malaysia still has not entered either the G20 or the trillion-dollar GDP club (Barisan Nasional’s latest target is a trillion ringgit).

According to the United Nations, the Malaysian youth unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 12.1% and rising – approximately quadruple the national unemployment rate. A recent Bank Negara survey showed that three out of four Malaysians find it difficult to raise even RM1,000 in an emergency.

Najib is notorious for falsifying economic data in his speeches, selectively quoting reports, omitting bad economic news, and twisting the complete economic portrait of Malaysia, because he is politically unstable.

In the recent best-seller The Rise and Fall of Nations, the author describes a particularly hilarious but disturbing story about Najib’s inability to understand the Malaysian economy:

“On a visit to New York in October 2015, one of my colleagues asked (Najib) whether the collapse of the value of the ringgit is offering any boost to the nation’s embattled manufacturing sector. He answered by missing the point, saying the cheap ringgit is great for tourism, which can be an important contributor to growth in a country as large as Malaysia. Pressed on the manufacturing question, Najib seemed at a loss. An aide in the back of the room pitched in to help, but spoke about investing in oil and other raw materials. The crowd left with the impression that Malaysia is missing an opportunity, because the cheap currency coupled with the right reforms could supercharge Malaysian manufacturing.”

All Malaysians should read the new World Bank report to draw their own conclusions about whether Barisan Nasional is missing additional opportunities for growth – or whether it’s more focused on protecting the elite few. – October 9, 2017.

* Athena Athena is a reader of The Malaysian Insight.

* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight.

https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/17745/

LAPORAN BANK DUNIA



Growth Prospects for 2017 and 2018 remain positive for developing East Asia and the Pacific Improved global growth prospects and continued strong domestic demand underpin a positive outlook for the developing economies of East Asia and the Pacific, says the October 2017 edition of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.

Stronger growth in advanced economies, a moderate recovery in commodity prices, and a strengthening of global trade growth, are the favorable external factors that will support the economies of developing East Asia and Pacific to expand by 6.4 percent for 2017. Growth in the region is expected to slow slightly to 6.2 percent in 2018 primarily reflecting China’s gradual slowdown.

The uptick in growth in 2017 relative to earlier expectations reflects stronger than expected growth in China, at 6.7 percent, the same pace as in 2016.
In the rest of the region, including the large Southeast Asian economies, growth in 2017 will be slightly faster at 5.1 percent in 2017 and 5.2 percent in 2018, up from 4.9 percent in 2016.

Several external and domestic risks could impact this positive outlook.
Uncertainty remains about economic policies in some advanced economies, and escalating geopolitical tensions could have adverse economic impacts. Monetary policies in the U.S. and the Euro Area could be tightened more quickly than expected.

Many countries in the region also have vulnerabilities in their financial sectors with high levels of private sector debt or deteriorating asset quality. In several countries fiscal deficits remain high or are on the rise.

Larger economies faring well, mixed outlook for smaller countries
China’s gradual rebalancing away from investment and towards domestic consumption is expected to continue, with growth projected to slow to around 6.4 percent in 2018-19.

Thailand and Malaysia are expected to grow more rapidly than expected, due to the stronger exports, including tourism, for the former, and increased investment in the latter.

Gains in real wages are fueling strong consumption in Indonesia, and a rebound in agriculture and manufacturing is boosting growth in Vietnam.
In the Philippines, the economy is projected to expand at a slightly slower pace than in 2016, partly due to slower than expected implementation of public investment projects.

The outlook for smaller countries is mixed.
Mongolia and Fiji are expected to fare better in 2017-2018. Mongolia’s macroeconomic stabilization program is encouraging new foreign direct investment in mining and transport. Fiji’s growth will be supported by reconstruction from Cyclone Winston.

Growth in Cambodia and Lao PDR is moderating compared to 2016, but its pace remains higher than other countries in the region; the power sector in Lao PDR and trade and FDI in Cambodia are the main economic drivers.
Expanding tourism, low world commodity prices, high levels of revenue from fishing fees, and rising construction activity are supporting moderate GDP growth rates in most of the small Pacific Island Countries. In the longer term, reforms in tourism, labor mobility, fisheries, and the knowledge economy have the potential to lead to significantly higher incomes, employment, and government revenue.

Robust growth will mean that poverty is expected to continue falling across the region. By 2019, it is projected that that there will be about a third fewer people living in extreme poverty while the number of those in moderate poverty will fall by about a fifth.

Priorities for Reforms
Reducing financial sector and fiscal risks while strengthening competitiveness, including through deeper regional integration, remain priorities.

A move away from measures aimed at short-term growth towards policies that address financial sector and fiscal vulnerabilities would boost the region’s resilience.

These measures include: strengthening supervision and prudential regulation in countries experiencing rapid growth in private-sector credit and debt; reforming tax policies and administration to help boost revenue collection; and being ready to tighten monetary policy if warranted by the pace of interest rate increases in advanced economies.

Structural reform priorities differ across countries. Sustained reforms of state-owned enterprise sectors in China and Vietnam can improve growth prospects.
The Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia and Lao PDR will benefit from continued improvements in public investment management systems to support their expanding public infrastructure programs.

In Indonesia, liberalizing the regulations for foreign investment remains important.

The report also highlights the potential benefits from the well-managed expansion of tourism can offer to the region, including for the Pacific Island Countries. This will require closer collaboration between governments and the private sector to address any adverse environmental and social impacts while enhancing the economic gains.

Deepening regional integration can help offset the risks of protectionism. The ASEAN Economic Community offers one avenue for doing so, including by further liberalizing trade in services and reducing non-tariff barriers.

High and rising inequality is a growing concern across the region, as are falling mobility and growing economic insecurity. To address these challenges, measures to reduce extreme poverty must be accompanied by policies that broaden access to quality services and more productive jobs, and stronger social protection systems that reduce the consequences of adverse shocks.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eap/publication/east-asia-pacific-economic-update